Swine flu projection: 2500 cases in Australia by end June?

1 06 2009

I’ve put a very rough “line of best fit” (NB – no statistics used here at all – this is all my “eye” on PowerPoint – so don’t rely on it!). It suggests we’re at 2,500 cases by end June.

At an assumed fatality rate of 0.1% you wouldn’t expect to see a death in June if this projection is right.

Somehow – it seems too slow: note this line has steepened in the last couple of days – if it keeps the more recent slope we will be well over 2,500 cases by end June.

Projection for swine flu in Australia

Advertisements

Actions

Information

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s




%d bloggers like this: