Crawford posts at H1N1 about Victoria moving to the “realistic” phase of sustain. He quotes the Australian newspaper:
The sustain phase means the virus is now rife in the community and no longer, as in other states and territories, mostly imported from overseas or restricted to a few clusters of cases.
So what’s going on in Vic? I don’t know, but we’re seeing sustained person to person transmission going on in the community and we’re not seeing it elsewhere. For example, NSW Health was quoted on ABC radio this evening as saying that there are still no person to person transmission cases in NSW (that is, the only cases we have in NSW are those people who caught swine flu elsewhere and then came home).
It raises the question: what’s going on in Vic? To which I don’t know the answer, except to say it’s the coldest, most populous state in Australia.
Anyway, I’ve started graphing this to try and understand it. This graph shows the cumulative numbers of cases in Vic (red line) and the cumulative number of cases in the rest of Australia (blue line). It tells an interesting story! (Source for this is the same Aust Gov’t Health and Ageing update site I’ve been using for all these graphs. Sorry about the poor graphics quality – it’s too late in the evening to fix it! I’ll do it later.)