It had to happen, but it’s interesting nonetheless. The “implied mortality rate” that I calculate from the WHO data has stopped its decline and seems to have levelled out at about 0.45% over the last two weeks. Remember, this mortality rate is simply the deaths due to swine flu divided by the confirmed cases. I use the WHO global data. For a full explanation of the implied mortality rate and why I think the real rate is probably a lot lower, see this post here.
What does this levelling out mean? I don’t know, I guess we’ve just found the bottom. If you pressed me, I would say that in the last fortnight we’ve just reached large enough numbers for both cases and deaths for some “statistical stability” to settle in.
What would it mean if it started to increase? Well that’s an interesting one. Let’s cross that bridge if we ever get to it.