25th July update: sharp increase in hospitalisations sustained

25 07 2009

Today’s update from the Department of Health and Ageing shows the higher number of hospitalisations that we first saw yesterday continuing to be maintained. Yesterday we saw the number of people in hospital rise from 256 to 369. Today’s numbers have the figure at 377 – in other words it looks less like a “blip”.

As usual, I’ve updated the Australian graphs at the top of this blog for today’s update from the Department of Health and Ageing (small versions of the key graphs below). 7 day moving average continues to edge up – now 681.

7 day move avg australiaaust hospitalisations

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6 responses

26 07 2009
Australia: Sharp increase in hospitalisations sustained | Swine Flu Daily Update

[…] at Swine Flu in Australia has posted 25th July update: sharp increase in hospitalisations sustained. Excerpt: Today’s update from the Department of Health and Ageing shows the higher number of […]

26 07 2009
Cosmoskitten

Has Australia done a survey of the population to find out how many have or have had swine flu, and how many of those have been in need of hospitalisation?

We realy need better data on the hospitalisation rate, case fatality ratio and information to be able to estimate how many people will eventually get swine flu.

26 07 2009
aussieflublogger

Hi. No surveys that I know of. The ECDC in their risk assessment report (that I blogged about earlier) lament this fact as well – that we don’t have this kind of data. They make some good comments about the UK situation and what they did there at the start of the pandemic. Their estimates of hospitalisation rates of 1% to 2% are based on the UK. But that’s got to be a massively high figure – if you assume a ratio that high you get huge numbers hitting your health system at the peak of the pandemic. As far as CFR goes, I think the ECDC are assuming the case fatality rate could be lower than normal seasonal flu (again in that risk assessment report). I will keep digging at this end for surveys etc and I’ll be sure to post anything I come across. Cheers. Nick.

27 07 2009
Cosmoskitten

I found a bit from ECDC on CFR (Wee, pandemic flu nerdism coming 😀 )

“A figure between 0.1% and 0.2% may be nearer the true figure at this stage. Given the seeming immunity to the pandemic strain in older age groups (that usually experience higher risk of severe disease and death from seasonal influenza and pandemics), it is quite possible that the overall CFR for this pandemic will be lower than the one for seasonal influenza. However, it needs to be borne in mind that because of this being a pandemic strain — and therefore many more people will be affected than for seasonal flu — it remains most likely that there will be a many higher numbers of actual deaths (and hospitalisations) than experienced in even a bad seasonal influenza winter.”

ECDC INTERIM RISK ASSESSMENT, Influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic, 20 July 2009
http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/files/pdf/Health_topics/090720_Influenza_A(HINI)_Risk_Assessment.pdf

We still need those studies! If polling organizations are keeping a tab on what TV-programs we watch, we could surely make some studies about the pandemic flu. By the way, if you have any interested scientist that wants to make a study in Sweden, I could try to help with names, addresses and such in Sweden. There is quite much health data you can access, if you are a serious researcher.

27 07 2009
aussieflublogger

Hi. Got to love pandemic flu nerdism! Thanks for the ref – that risk assessment report repays close study, I think.

3 08 2009
Ron Law

If you want to see the real pattern in Australia plot the numbers for the states indiviually… start with people in hospital and ICU and deaths. You’ll see that there is a serious decline in Victoria (about 50% in past 3 weeks.) This pattern of decline is apparent in Mexico, USA, (especially if you look at individual states data http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/images/graphs/ili29_graph.gif and NY City, http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/images/cd/h1n1-hosp-adm-ed-large.jpg texas http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/idcu/disease/influenza/surveillance/2009/week_28/ILIPercentageChart.png wisconson http://pandemic.wisconsin.gov/docview.asp?docid=17189&locid=106

ie, the pandemic is in decline in both northern and southern hemispheres. Also not that the UK DOH claimed that last week there were 100,000 cases…. but ZERO deaths… that suggests this is a pandemic dud.

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