Wednesday update: 2,000 new cases for the second day running

29 07 2009

UPDATE AS AT JULY 30: It seems the Department of Health and Ageing made a mistake with the total cumulative figure in this update of 29th July. They wrote 21,109 total cases. It’s pretty clear now (as at July 30) that they meant 20,109. See my July 30 post.I’ve left my original July 29 post, with the Department’s mistake, standing here:

So, now it’s a bit more concerning. The Department of Health and Ageing have reported another 2,000 new cases today (2,083 to be precise). This takes the 7 day moving average of new daily cases to 915. That’s right – we have averaged 915 confirmed new cases of Swine Flu every day for the last 7 days.

So, what’s behind this? I guess it’s that we are approaching the peak (flu usually peaks here in August). But, as one of the commenters last night implied, it’s as much about how much testing you choose to do as anything else. There are better ways of seeing the spread of the pandemic (eg hospitalisations etc). Nonetheless, I think this new daily cases figure is not a bad proxy for the current spread of the virus: in as much as, I expect the 7 day moving average will trend down as we come off the peak (hopefully in a few weeks). So, it remains worth watching.

The graphs below tell the story. As always, you can see these graphs in more detail, as well as some others, at the top of this blog (at “Australian Swine Flu Graphs“, which I try to update daily).

7 day move avg australiaaust hospitalisations




2 responses

30 07 2009
Snake Oil Baron

Is there any indication as to whether the ICU beds are filling up or are there just more cases that need hospitalization but not ICU?

30 07 2009

Hi. I don’t know,unfortunately. I’ll think about how we might answer that question.

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