The week it peaked over here?

9 08 2009

After a week away, I’ve just updated the 7 day moving average graph to last Friday (latest available date). We’ve seen a fall in the 7 day moving average of reported new cases from 712 to 469 in Australia. Here’s the graph:

7 day move avg australiaDoes last week mark the peak of Swine Flu over here – the crest of the “pandemic wave”?

I doubt it. I’m sure we’re just testing fewer people.

Why am I sounding so certain? Well, apart from being an innate pessimist (what other personality type is going to start a blog about swine flu?), flu seasons just don’t seem to peak at this time of year – it seems a few weeks too early. In addition, the number of hospitalisations hasn’t declined. Here’s the graph:

aust hospitalisationsSo, let’s wait and see. While I think about other measures besides the confirmed new cases from the Department of Health and Ageing that might give us some indication of when the peak does actually arrive.

I’ve updated these two graphs on the Australian Graphs page. As always, you can double click on these graphs to blow them up and take a close look.

And it’s good to be back blogging. No excuses for not updating, apart from a very busy week: lots of travel for work and almost every night something on. Thanks for all the comments – it was really nice to be missed!

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