Should we call the “peak” on the first wave here in Oz?

26 08 2009

So, have we seen the peak of the pandemic (or at least of the first wave) here in Oz in the last week? I suspect we have. I’ve updated the key graphs with numbers for the last week and they seem to be starting to tell that story.

Here is the 7 day moving average of new cases being reported each day. We are now at a level (of about 300 new cases being reported per day) that we haven’t seen since early July:

7 day move avg australiaAs with all the graphs – you can click on this graph and blow it up to full screen for a better look.

Now have a look at the second graph. This is the 7 day moving average of deaths reported each day of people with swine flu. Again, the trend has been down, and we seem to have formed a clear peak in the last week.

7 day move avg deaths

The only graph that’s not shifting yet – that’s still just “plateaued” is the number of people currently in hospital with Swine Flu:

aust hospitalisationsWe have had one of the mildest Augusts ever all along the east coast of Australia this year – and that may have brought this peak forward earlier than many expected. Let’s see what the next week brings…




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