So, have we seen the peak of the pandemic (or at least of the first wave) here in Oz in the last week? I suspect we have. I’ve updated the key graphs with numbers for the last week and they seem to be starting to tell that story.
Here is the 7 day moving average of new cases being reported each day. We are now at a level (of about 300 new cases being reported per day) that we haven’t seen since early July:
Now have a look at the second graph. This is the 7 day moving average of deaths reported each day of people with swine flu. Again, the trend has been down, and we seem to have formed a clear peak in the last week.
The only graph that’s not shifting yet – that’s still just “plateaued” is the number of people currently in hospital with Swine Flu:
We have had one of the mildest Augusts ever all along the east coast of Australia this year – and that may have brought this peak forward earlier than many expected. Let’s see what the next week brings…